“The overall market environment seems increasingly risky to us, as securities prices are rising despite weak and generally deteriorating global fundamentals. U.S. corporate earnings are expected to be lower this quarter. Higher markets in the face of eroding fundamentals can be a toxic combination. A market rising for non-fundamental reasons (i.e., QE and ECB bond repurchases) is always one that demands a healthy dose of skepticism.” (Baupost’s Seth Klarman 3Q 2012 Letter)
Given all criticisms already received by Mr. Bernanke and the lousy composition of the rally seem in the small/mid cap universe, it is indeed difficult to be constructive. As the time goes by I am being the most selective as I can to preserve capital and struggling to find cheap opportunities in a market that could hurt investors’ pockets.
As now people envision equity investments as bonds while they look for yield in the so called “new normal” environment, value investors find themselves in trouble when searching for value and one might know how this is gonna end: tons of value going forward. Thus our job description haven’t changed so far, but acting on investment cases might take a while before they present themselves at reasonable prices. As Munger says, it’s avoiding stupidity that makes you compound at a good rate.